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Dr Sleep value query
http://www.stephenkingcollector.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1030
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Author:  jimimck [ Thu Feb 21, 2013 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Dr Sleep value query

I've purchased both the preorders for TheShining and Doctor Sleep s/l's, and have been wondering what the value of these might be post production.

Basically I'm in two minds about keeping Doctor Sleep, as I'm not a true s/l collector, and so have been thinking I should just look to have my top three favourite books as s/l's (The Shining, IT and The Stand)

Here a some scenarios I've been considering:

1) I've requested the same number from both SP and CD, and so fingers crossed I end up with a matching set. If a matching set was valued at including a premium, I could look to sell them together, purchase another Shining, and have funds left over to put towards IT

2) If option 1 is unlikely, do you think Dr Sleep may be worth a straight trade for IT?

Any thoughts on what may happen with these books when hey are released?

Author:  jhanic [ Fri Feb 22, 2013 5:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr Sleep value query

Jimmy, If I could predict the future, I'd be doing lots better in the stock market than I am. My gut feel is that the Doctor Sleep S/L will be doing better than The Shining S/L, but who knows? I think a matching number set will command a small premium over the separate volumes.

John

Author:  TheCollector [ Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr Sleep value query

jhanic wrote:
Jimmy, If I could predict the future, I'd be doing lots better in the stock market than I am. My gut feel is that the Doctor Sleep S/L will be doing better than The Shining S/L, but who knows? I think a matching number set will command a small premium over the separate volumes.

John


Well, I'm no psychic either, but I probably follow the value of limited editions more then most (running a site for limited editions does that I suppose :mrgreen: ) I could probably wax poetic for a page or two giving my full reasoning behind each value, but I haven't had my coffee yet this morning so I'll try to keep it somewhat brief.

Dr Sleep Lettered - First of all, I predict this title won't be released with the limited & gift. It'll be delayed until 2014, by then the "spike" in value that accompanies books hitting the secondary market will be over. Combined with the new record issue price of $2,500 means we'll see this book go for anywhere from $2,000 - $2,750

Dr Sleep Limited - Assuming the book is the wild success everyone says it is - The fact that the limited is out at the same time as the trade edition will only help that initial "spike" in value, which should already be decent due to the relatively small print run. I predict it hitting eBay at $650 - $800, eventually settling down to somewhere in the low $600 range. Similar to the current going rate of IT, so yes I think you could potential find someone to do a straight trade with you.

Dr Sleep Gift - Most gift editions wind up going for slightly less then issue price eventually, but if I again go with the assumption this is going to be the blockbuster hit everyone's expecting, and the fact it sold out within days I think we're looking at $125 - $175 during the first couple months after release. As to value after the initial surge it's going to depend on how easy it is to score copies on the secondary market. On one hand the book sold out a LOT quicker then typical so we could see it even reach $200 if there's a good bit of publicity around this release. But if the story isn't as well received then down to $100 or lower it goes.

The two big questions here are the production quality of the editions & how well the new story is recieved. (Mostly how the story is received).

I'll put The Shining in a separate post so it doesn't seem like one big blob of text :)

Author:  TheCollector [ Fri Feb 22, 2013 9:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr Sleep value query

Ok onto the Shining:

First off, anyone think it's a coincidence that CD issued the same number of copies at exactly the same price as PS publishing did a week earlier? I'll leave that to your imagination.....

Shining Lettered - Sold out quickly, but lettered editions always do. I expect this to be released before the Dr. Sleep lettered edition, although it could ship a few weeks later. Quick enough that it might ride some of the Dr. Sleep hype. But uber high starting price is going to prohibit it from going to far. Estimate of $2,300 - $3,000

Shining Limited
- Small release of a well known story, also riding on the release of Dr. Sleep trade AND limited editions. I'm calling this at a matching price to Dr. Sleep. $650 - $800 during the "spike" period, settling to mid $600 by 2014

Shining Gift - This one will, unfortunately for collectors, go the same way as most gift editions. Although it's possible it may see a small spike beyond the release price, I'd top it at $120 with it settling into $80-$100 by 2014. If you check the PS site, you'll see over 200 copies still available at issue price. Compare that to Dr. Sleep that was offered a week later and sold out within a few days.

The shining is a known story so no Mystery there like Dr. Sleep - the two variables here are going to be how much of a bump it can receive from Dr. Sleep (AKA The Shining II) being released at the same time & what people are going to think of the design, as it's being done by a new illustrator that hasn't received the best reviews based on what I've seen on tdt.org forums.

Author:  jhanic [ Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr Sleep value query

Some great analyses, Tomas! Thanks!

John

Author:  jimimck [ Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dr Sleep value query

Thanks Tomas, heaps of great information and insight.

I think what I'll do is wait for them to be issued, see how I feel about the publication and story for Dr Sleep, but assuming it doesn't over take any of my top three King stories, may look to trade it for an IT. Then I just need to sell a kidney for The Stand lol

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